The latest data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) shows that the U.S. has firmly established itself as a net exporter of total petroleum products, a shift that first occurred in 2020 and has continued for several years.
It’s difficult to separate the human and emotional side of war from the economic and market impacts. Without minimizing the human element, we focus on markets here. From that perspective, the energy market is the primary way through which this crisis will affect markets globally. Oil and natural gas production and transit have already been disrupted, sending prices sharply higher. If these disruptions are severe and long lasting, they have the potential to influence inflation expectations, weigh on business confidence, and elevate volatility across asset classes, all of which will likely translate into lower stock prices. Simply put, the more intense and prolonged the geopolitical shock, the larger the likely market impact.
Dividend strategies, a.k.a. equity income strategies, have outperformed to start the year, owing to the value-led cyclical rotation we are seeing in domestic equity markets.
The 2026 update seeks steady compounding by rightsizing equity risk, anchoring in high-quality fixed income, and preserving sleeves in real assets and select alternatives so portfolios remain resilient across a range of outcomes. In this edition of the Weekly Market Commentary, we highlight some key elements of the 2026 SAA update.
Wall Street narratives rarely stay still, and recent weeks have underscored how quickly sentiment can change as perceived new information challenges the status quo.
After a stellar 2025 in which emerging market (EM) equities returned 34%, 2026 is off to a good start with the MSCI EM Index up 7% year to date. Last year’s near doubling of the S&P 500 return was driven mostly by a weakening U.S. dollar, which propped up EM returns, but attractive valuations and artificial intelligence (AI) investment played a role. This week we highlight five reasons we’ve warmed up to EM.
The Federal Reserve (Fed) enters 2026 navigating potentially constrained policy conditions as resilient growth and above‑trend inflation intersect with an increasingly unsustainable fiscal trajectory. Fed Chair Jerome Powell emphasized that federal debt growth requires eventual corrective action, even if near‑term market risks remain limited. Rising primary deficits at near full employment further limit long‑run policy flexibility, while expanding Treasury financing needs — and a growing reliance on short‑duration bills — heighten rollover risk and amplify sensitivity to the Fed’s policy rate.
Productivity growth is the key mechanism that allows the U.S. economy to expand above its long‑run trend without reigniting inflation.
Policy dynamics ranging from robust central‑bank gold purchases to evolving trade and geopolitical strategies significantly influenced price action across the metals landscape. Together with structural supply shortages and rising industrial demand, these factors have created a powerful backdrop that continues to shape market volatility and performance. In this week’s Weekly Market Commentary, we explore the drivers behind the strength in metals, the associated risks, and the outlook for the durability of the rally.
Fourth quarter earnings season unofficially kicks off this week with a dozen banks and asset managers in the S&P 500 slated to report.