Research

Earnings season is usually predictable quarter to quarter in the absence of economic inflection points.

U.S. equity markets have bucked the weak September seasonality trend (thus far) and rallied to fresh highs this month, with the S&P 500 holding onto a 2.8% monthly gain as of September 26.

At its September meeting, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) cut the federal funds target range by 25 basis points to 4.00%–4.25%, marking the first rate reduction of the year after eight months of holding steady.

While much has (rightfully) been made of the ongoing debt and deficit spending here in the U.S., the fiscal positions of major developed economies reveal profound disparities in debt management and long-term trend sustainability. Mounting government obligations could have significant implications on economic stability and monetary policy flexibility if not remedied.

The S&P 500 has gained more than 30% since its low on April 8, 2025, and is up 5% since the index fully recovered its early-year correction losses on June 27, 2025 (with a close of 6,144).

The end of Labor Day weekend often arrives with a bittersweet tone — it’s a final salute to summer’s warmth and leisure before the cool air of fall arrives for much of the country.

As central bankers, economists, and policymakers gathered last weekend in Wyoming’s Grand Teton National Park for the 2025 Jackson Hole Economic Symposium, the Federal Reserve (Fed) found itself at a critical juncture marked by political pressures, personnel changes, and internal divisions over monetary policy direction.

As we wrote on August 11, companies have done a good job overall adjusting to tariffs so far, which was evident during earnings season. While several factors have helped mute the recent tariff effects, companies will experience more cost pressures in the months ahead.

We have been pleasantly surprised by how well stocks have handled the sharp increase in tariffs. Since the market low from the early April tariff scare, the S&P 500 Index has gained more than 28%.

Last week was one for the ages in terms of the number and magnitude of events and data points for investors to digest. A Federal Reserve (Fed) meeting, the monthly jobs report, and the peak week of earnings season would be enough to qualify as a busy week.