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Economy in Uncharted Waters | Weekly Market Commentary | July 28, 2025
Last week, investors were reminded of the persistent impact the pandemic had on many macro models. In particular, the Leading Economic Index (LEI), which has historically been the Conference Board’s accurate leading indicator of the business cycle, still points to a deep, imminent recession as of last month.
Midyear Fixed Income, Currency, and Commodity Markets Outlook: Higher for Longer | Weekly Market Commentary | July 21, 2025
And while we think the interplay between the good (lower rates) and bad (higher term premium) will persist throughout the rest of the year, given the still resilient economic conditions, we think rates, particularly the 10-year Treasury yield, could drift higher in the near term before ending the year between 4.0% to 4.5%.
Midyear Stock Market Outlook: Path to Upside Clouded with Uncertainty | Weekly Market Commentary | July 14, 2025
If “tariff” isn’t the word of the year for stock investors so far, then perhaps it’s “uncertainty.” Uncertainty around trade policy dominated the path of the stock market in the first half and will continue to play a large role in the second half.
Midyear Outlook 2025: Pragmatic Optimism, Measured Expectations
We started 2025 on a high note, although we acknowledged that “no market environment is ever permanent, and that change is always potentially around the corner.” Well change did come, and with it, volatility, perhaps in part because we assumed President Trump’s...
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